14.1 Trend

Trend captures the general direction of the time series.

  • Long-run increase or decrease over time (overall upward or downward movement)
  • Data taken over a long period of time
  • For example, increasing job growth year over year despite seasonal fluctuations.
  • Trend can be increasing, decreasing, or constant.
  • It can increase or decrease in different ways (linearly, exponentially, or in other ways)